Sunday with Niall Paterson Interview with Lord Peter Ricketts, Retired Diplomat

ANY QUOTES USED MUST BE ATTRIBUTED TO SUNDAY WITH NIALL PATERSON, SKY NEWS

NIALL PATERSON: There are rumblings in Westminster today that senior Cabinet Ministers are unhappy with the government’s response to the nerve gas attack on the former Russian spy, Sergei Skripal and his daughter. The investigation which so far at least has identified more than 200 witnesses, has been going on for a week now and while Russian state actors remain firmly in the frame, the government is yet to take any action. Joining me now to discuss what Downing Street could and should be doing is the former National Security Advisor, Lord Ricketts. Peter, lovely to see you again. Will there be a working assumption in government, in the intelligence community, that the Russians were responsible for this?

LORD PETER RICKETTS: I suspect that people have been very careful to keep an open mind while they put the evidence together and there is always going to be this gap between the entirely understandable public demand for action soon and the media pressure for that and the government wanting to take the time to put the case together. I assume that with all the evidence that they are collecting, they will have a pretty good idea by now who is behind this and I don't know but I assume the finger of suspicion will point clearly to Russia but the stronger the case that can be made, the more likely we are to get wide international support for whatever measures are taken.

NP: Because it is certainly the case that with the intelligence community, the public inquiry remain convinced that Alexander Litvinenko’s death was carried out by a former Russian spy and was approved by the Kremlin, specifically Vladimir Putin.

LORD PETER RICKETTS: Yes, but that took ten years before that public inquiry was finally held and that conclusion was made and clearly we’ve got to move more quickly. In 2006 the government did decide on the strength of the evidence that that was the most likely outcome, they found suspect that they wanted to extradite …

NP: Lugovoy.

LORD PETER RICKETTS: Lugovoy, he got back to Russia and the Russians refused to extradite him, indeed put him into the Russian parliament so I don't know whether they’ll be able to find a suspect this time but I can understand why they are taking their time to build the really strongest case they can. They have got 250 witnesses to question, it’s clear they are going to take a bit of time but I suspect it can’t be long now before we get the first statement about what the working assumption is.

NP: Because with your former diplomat’s hat on, I mean in terms of what the allegation is, this is the inviolable of inviolables when it comes to international relations isn’t it? Another state carrying out or attempting to carry out a murder, an assassination on another state’s sovereign territory.

LORD PETER RICKETTS: It is, it’s absolutely outrageous and not just a murder but a murder using these terrible exotic weapons, putting at risk all sorts of members of the public as we’ve seen, police officers and so on, in a county town in England and not the first time it’s happened. So if the suspicions prove to be well-founded, then really the government have got to take some pretty tough action.

NP: And then you’ve led rather nicely onto the rather tougher question of what is that appropriate action? It seems to me and to others that on occasions when this happened in the past, the action that we have taken has not precipitated even the most mild change in direction from the Kremlin so what do we do?

LORD PETER RICKETTS: Well in 2006 the government of the day did take action and part of it was to really freeze any co-operation with the Russians on security intelligence matters. We have taken as a result a harder line on Russia than any other country in Europe in the last ten years, we took a hard line on them over the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions there. This time we have clearly got to go beyond it. The problem is how, just trying to find another punch which out-punches Putin isn’t going to work, it seems to me we have got to make the guys in the Kremlin sit up and take notice that they cannot get away with this kind of thing with impunity and if Russia wants to be taken seriously as a major responsible country in the world, it can’t behave like this.

NP: It seems to me that you are suggesting tactics that are of a piece with what we’ve done before, expulsion of diplomats, perhaps going as high as the Ambassador himself, increase sanctions on Russian citizens, increase stability to confiscate assets but is there any evidence, given the old aphorism ‘Might only respects might’, that Putin will take any notice of that?

LORD PETER RICKETTS: As I say, we can’t trade like for like so we’ve got to find measures that make very clear that first of all we are not going to accept this and that Russia’s behaviour is putting at risk its status as a serious country. I think going after the money of people who we know have been responsible for major human rights abuses would be a powerful tool. There is a Bill before parliament now actually, in fact the government have not been encouraging it up to now, I suspect we may see a U-turn on that and we may get a Bill fairly quickly that allows the government to seize assets for example of people close to Putin who have been suspected of human rights abuses. Expulsions? I suppose there will be expulsions of anyone in the security services and so on. Expulsions of Ambassadors? It’s a gesture, it gets a headline for a day but actually when things are in a bad way you need an Ambassador there, we need our Ambassador in Moscow probably to be passing the hard messages to the Russians so I don't think that that’s one of the game changer issues.

NP: To what extent is our response limited by the fact that there are occasions there are institutions on which we need Russian assistance? I mean I’m thinking specifically of the Security Council of the United Nations.

LORD PETER RICKETTS: Well you have got to decide sanctions that play to the objective you are trying to reach so if you are trying to show that Russia cannot get away with this and be respected as a serious country around the world, you have got to find things that the Kremlin will take notice of. Also we can’t ignore yes, that Russia is a player in international security, that we have commercial relations, that there is an oil and gas relationship and so on. I think we have got to look for measures that have the maximum possibility of other countries going along with and supporting us so that we get a multiplier effect across other Western countries. For example, more concerted efforts against Russian money coming into Western countries from dodgy sources would be one of those powerful measures I think.

NP: Is it possible for us to sway the opinions of those in the Kremlin when our ability to project hard power than it once was? I mean would, as someone is suggesting elsewhere today, increasing the big defence spending from 2% to 3% GDP, would that send a stronger signal than a few more sanctions?

LORD PETER RICKETTS: Well I think that’s a decision that can only be taken on the basis of what Russia has done in the last fortnight. I think the fact that NATO is increasing its deployments in the east of Europe to deter any Russian aggressive behaviour towards the Baltic states, that has an effect and the Russians certainly notice that. They would certainly notice it of course if Britain were strengthening its defences.

NP: The also notice what Donald Trump has been saying about NATO in recent times.

LORD PETER RICKETTS: Yes, and I think there is everything to be said for strengthening the credibility of NATO, the commitment to NATO. I think it is a shame that Donald Trump took his time to do that because NATO is one of our most powerful things. I mean there are other gestures that could be thought about, for example boycotts of the World Cup, I don't know whether that’s really being considered seriously, just England not going might …

NP: It might please a couple of us!

LORD PETER RICKETTS: If you listen to the hearts of some others in the British Isles but seriously, that would only really have an impact if a number of countries boycotted the World Cup, that would certainly send a very strong message but I don't know whether that would be judged to be overall the kind of message we want to be sending.

NP: Well in pursuit of answers there is a press conference due to take place at half past twelve today in Salisbury, a multi-agency press conference, we may get, creep a little closer to the truth of what actually happened there. Lord Ricketts, thank you very much for joining us in the studio.

LORD PETER RICKETTS: Thank you.