Sophy Ridge on Sunday Interview with Lord Howard, Former Conservative Leader, 2.04.17

ANY QUOTES USED MUST BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOPHY RIDGE ON SUNDAY, SKY NEWS

SOPHY RIDGE: Three letters exchanged this week could change the course of the country’s future, how very quaint.  Theresa May, the EU and Nicola Sturgeon have been setting out the red lines and negotiating positions that will keep us talking for the next two years until Brexit becomes reality.  I’m joined now from Kent by the former leader of the Conservative party, Lord Howard.  Thank you for being with us this morning.  You have always been a very keen supporter of Brexit, this week we’ve had the kind of red lines, the negotiating position set out from both the UK and the EU and it does feel as though the EU is perhaps standing rather firmer than some people expected, particularly of course on that divorce bill.  Are you feeling any less optimistic now about Brexit than you were in June?

LORD HOWARD: Not at all, no, I’m very optimistic about the outcome. I think a good deal is in the interests of the EU and in our own interests and I’m confident that good sense will prevail.

SR: I admire your optimism there. One of the perhaps more serious things that’s been in the news in recent weeks has been the future of the Union because of course we have a situation now where the Scottish Nationalists want a second referendum in Scotland, the future of power sharing in Northern Ireland hangs in the balance, even Gibraltar now appears to be on the table.  How worried are you about it?

LORD HOWARD: I’m not concerned.  If we take Gibraltar first, I think there’s no question whatever that our government will stand by Gibraltar.  35 years ago this week another woman Prime Minister sent a task force halfway across the world to defend the freedom of another small group of British people against another Spanish speaking country and I’m absolutely certain that our current Prime Minister will show the same resolve in standing by the people of Gibraltar.  

SR: At the same time though, all these questions about the future of the Union, they were hardly on the Vote Leave bus were they during the referendum campaign, were you expecting them?

LORD HOWARD: Well Nicola Sturgeon talks a very good game but I don't think her position is quite as strong as she makes out.  If there is to be a second referendum I would be amazed if the Scottish people voted for independence, it’s very uncertain as to whether they would be able to join the European Union, their economic position has obviously weakened considerably as a result of the halving of the price of oil and I’m not sure the people of Scotland want to be outside the UK and outside the EU in rather a lonely and precarious place.

SR: Nicola Sturgeon is acting tough after Brexit but Theresa May is prepared to play pretty hard ball as well isn’t she?  We’ve seen the suggestion that security cooperation with the rest of the EU may even be one of the negotiating chips on the UK side.  Aren’t some things more important than getting a good trade deal?

LORD HOWARD: Yes and the security of Europe will always be a matter of great importance to us and obviously I’m sure we will cooperate very, very closely on security issues with the European Union when we leave but that cooperation will be enhanced and strengthened and reinforced if our relationship with the European Union when we leave is the deep and special relationship which the government has spoken of, rather than a relationship which is full of rancour and bitterness in an unhappy split, so that’s one of the many reasons why it is in everyone’s interest for us to negotiate constructively with each other in a good spirit and end up with a good deal which benefits both of us.

SR: So in that case then was the government wrong then to bring up this spectre of stopping security cooperation?

LORD HOWARD: No, I think in the sense that I’ve just mentioned it is relevant, it’s relevant in the sense that we are going to be able to cooperate more wholeheartedly if we have a good relationship at the end of these negotiations than if it ends in rancour and bitterness, which I hope it won’t do and I don't think it will.

SR: Let’s talk for a moment about that divorce bill because the EU has been pretty firm that that is going to be one of the first things up for discussion, before any talk of trade deals.  How many billions would be acceptable do you think?

LORD HOWARD: Well I don't know the basis on which the European Union has produced its figures, indeed it hasn’t really produced any figures yet.  The House of Lords Select Committee recently reported that there was no real legal basis for us to pay anything but as part of the deal I imagine we probably would be prepared to pay something and it will probably be on the basis in the negotiations that until everything is agreed, nothing is agreed.  So if there is some provisional agreement on this question it would be provisional on a good agreement being reached on everything at the end.

SR: The EU has raised this idea of 50 billion euros, do you think that’s anywhere in the right ballpark?

LORD HOWARD: I would be astonished if it were and I don't think that’s an official figure which has come out of the EU, there have been lots of leaks and rumours but I’d be amazed if it were anything like that.

SR: If the UK does refuse to pay up there is a very good chance that we might not get a trade deal at all and that would mean tariffs wouldn’t it?  It would mean a 10% tariff on cars for example, 12% on clothing, I mean that would have a huge hit potentially on the UK’s economy and yet would you be saying you’re prepared to walk away without a deal?

LORD HOWARD: Well the average tariff imposed by the EU is something like 4% and as you know, Sophy, the pound has depreciated by much more than 10% so you’ve got to take that into account when you assess the consequences of tariffs so I don't think that that situation would be anything like a disaster for us, I think we could cope very well with that situation but of course it would be much, much better if we have a free trade deal, much better for the European Union as well as for us and I’m confident that that’s what will happen at the end of the two year period.

SR: One last question for you, Lord Howard.  Theresa May is currently enjoying excellent approval ratings, you know how hard it can be to lead a party that is behind in the polls, facing bad headlines in the media, do you ever feel a hint of sympathy for Jeremy Corbyn?

LORD HOWARD: Well I always hesitate before intruding on private grief but I do think it’s healthier for our parliamentary democracy if there is a reasonably strong opposition, not too strong, if you’re in government but perhaps stronger than it is at the moment.

SR: Lord Howard, thank you very much for your time today.